Archive for August, 2009
Real estate expert: S.D. at leading edge of recovery
Posted by Chas W. Leeper, SRA in Help for Buyers, Sellers & Homeowners, Help for Realtors / Brokers on August 20th, 2009
The chief economist for the National Association of Realtors predicted yesterday that mortgage interest rates will rise to 6 percent next year but saw no evidence of a “double dip” in housing price declines.
Economist Lawrence Yun, keynoting the San Diego Association of Realtor’s regional real estate summit, said California and San Diego are at the leading edge of a real estate recovery, based on rising prices and sales.
He noted that demand locally is strong enough that there is just a 2½-month inventory of homes for sale. With construction running at a sluggish pace, he said a shortage could develop next year as buying interest picks up.
“Usually, there is a 5 percent or 10 (percent) to 15 percent recovery” in sales, he said. “That’s been the past, historic experience. California markets have seen a 50 percent increase and there have been some markets up 100 percent.”
Yun spoke to an overflow crowd of more than 700 local agents and other industry professionals at the Doubletree Hotel in Mission Valley.
Also on tap were the San Diego and state realty presidents, last year’s national association president and other speakers who all aimed to calm the jitters of agents and brokers wondering about the state of the economy and outlook for housing.
Acting like a psychiatrist speaking to his patients on the couch, Yun calmly covered many economic and political issues facing the nation’s real estate market.
He began with a confession about how he missed the real estate bubble of 2004-06. Surely, the system had enough checks and balances to avoid a runaway market, he thought at the time. “I was clearly wrong,” he said.
He said the mistake was in not realizing that lenders were indiscriminately handing out loans. But the situation became clear when he caught an HGTV interview of a young UCLA couple who had succeeded in buying a $1.5 million home with a view of the ocean.
“I was jealous!” Yun said, tongue-in-cheek.
Just two years ago this month, all started to unravel as homeowners holding subprime mortgages were unable to cover rapidly increasing monthly payments. Now, Yun said several California markets, including San Diego, are starting to recover as prices rise month by month and sales increase, sometimes 100 percent over last year’s levels. He said the monthly changes are more indicative of the future than comparisons to year-ago levels.
Yun said San Diegans should be thankful that they aren’t in Detroit, where homes are going for as little as $20,000 because of economic woes.
But in his presentation, he illustrated how San Diego had experienced a roller-coaster ride in housing prices — compared with the flat-line, no-change situation in Midwestern cities like Dayton, Ohio.
San Diego prices fell from the peak $517,500 in November 2005 down to $280,000 in January, and have risen to $320,000 as of July, according to MDA DataQuick.
“We are back to justifiable levels,” Yun said, adding that affordability is the best on record.
But nationally, he said, reports continue being issued that prices are expected to fall another 10 percent, though that may not apply to all areas of the country, especially in places where they never raced upward. He expressed concern that consumers will hear reports of further drops and will continue holding off buying and thus delay a housing recovery.
Prices are strongest in Pacific Coast states, he pointed out in one slide, helped along by what he called the “tipping-point phenomenon.”
“You had a bubble bust,” he said. “Nonhomeowners were reluctant to enter the market and are still cautious.”
But with word that buying is increasing, the fence-sitters “don’t want to be left out” and buying has become acceptable in such markets.
With the Federal Reserve’s very low short-term interest rates in force, mortgage interest rates have remained at historically low levels, currently between 5.2 percent and 5.5 percent for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan.
But come next year, Yun predicted that rates might rise to 6 percent or higher, if the Fed sees signs of inflationary pressures.
“That’s not good news,” Yun said, but he argued that 6 percent is better than much higher rates first-time buyers’ parents paid 20 or 30 years ago.
He also predicted that foreclosures will continue at high levels for the next 12 months because of the weak economy. But unlike last year, he said this year’s foreclosures are being snapped up in many markets, including San Diego.
That demand for low-cost distressed properties leads Yun to discount any chance of a “double-dip” in price drops caused by an excess of distressed properties for sale.
Noting the historically low levels of housing construction, Yun said it is possible spot shortages might develop in places like San Diego, where the inventory of homes for sale is only about 2½ months. He acknowledged that the shortage might be somewhat artificial, since many lenders are holding off marketing foreclosures in hopes that asking prices will rise.
Union-Tribune
Roger Showley: (619) 293-1286;
Sales Activity Spiking In Southern California Real Estate
Posted by Chas W. Leeper, SRA in Help for Buyers, Sellers & Homeowners, Help for Realtors / Brokers, Help for mortgage pros on August 20th, 2009
By Austin Kilgore
Some investors are spying a good opportunity in Southern California real estate, where low median prices and enhanced financing is helping to fuel demand. Sales activity has recently spiked to a three year high. To learn more, see the following article by HousingWire.
Southern California posted the best July sales volume in three years and the fastest pace of any month since December 2006.
But as volume saw double-digit increases in all but one of the six Southern California counties, median prices saw double-digit declines from 2008 levels in the same number of counties.
A total of 24,104 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino counties in July, MDA DataQuick reported, an increase of 18.6% from July 2008.
Sales volume increased for the 13th straight month, driven by low mortgage rates, the availability of both Federal Housing Administration financing for first-time home buyers and improved financing for jumbo loans, a strong investor demand, and increased affordability, DataQuick said.
But median prices in the six-county area were down 23% on average. San Bernardino County saw the greatest increase in sales volume (40.8%), but the July 2009 median price was down 39.1% from July 2008. In Ventura County, where sales volume decreased 3.8%, the median price was only 10.7% lower than 2008.
The average monthly mortgage payment for Southern California buyers was $1,180, down from $1,193 in June 2009 and $1,710 in July 2008.
Foreclosures made up 43.4% of house and condo sales in July 2009, down from 45.3% in June 2009 and the peak of 56.7% in February 2009. It’s the lowest percentage since June 2008.
Request for Permanent Reversal of HVCC
Posted by Chas W. Leeper, SRA in California Home Values and Market Trends, Help for Buyers, Sellers & Homeowners, Help for Realtors / Brokers, Help for mortgage pros on August 18th, 2009
Representatives Childers (D-MS) and Miller (R-CA) introduced legislation (H.R. 3044) requesting an 18 month moratorium on the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC). ThinkBigWorkSmall applauds the introduction of H.R. 3044 and would like to thank Representative Childers (D-MS) and Representative Miller (R-CA) for their continued efforts and leadership on this issue but it is not enough. Tens of thousands of consumers have already been robbed of their opportunity to enjoy historically low rates by Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s rule. HVCC needs to be permanently reversed in order to lower costs to the consumer and to restore the thousands of real estate transactions stalled by this horribly misguided code. We the undersigned understand that the intentions of the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (”HVCC”) were to help curb the potential for fraud with respect to the valuation of residential properties. We must however bring to your attention the reality of the situation that HVCC has already caused.
1. Since “Appraisal Management Companies (AMC’s)” are taking up to 40% of the total appraisal fee, and are not being regulated to ensure that their appraisers are licensed and competent, we are seeing unlicensed and inexperienced individuals performing property inspections with grave data entry errors. These inferior appraisals are then being “signed-off” by other parties that NEVER INSPECTED THE PROPERTY and are creating unnecessary financial hardship for buyers and sellers.
2. With mortgage loans being denied due to inaccurate appraisals, borrowers are being forced to apply with other lenders who in turn have to charge the consumer ANOTHER APPRAISAL FEE to proceed with the transaction. This vicious cycle can go on endlessly costing well intended clients a great deal of money and time.
3. Under HVCC, no one involved in the transaction is allowed to communicate these major issues (EVEN LICENSED LOAN ORIGINATORS) directly to their appraisers. So countless real estate transactions that would have otherwise closed are now failing, resulting in continued property devaluation and offering NO stimulus to our economy with the exception of the unregulated AMC’s who are making unjustified profits at the expense of home loan applicants and licensed, qualified appraisers.
4. Licensed appraisers have legal and ethical standards in place already. The emphasis should be on making appraisers abide by these, rather than frustrating the ordering and communication process. This well intended legislation is severely misguided.
Although HVCC has good intentions, its flaws are severely hurting our housing industry, the consumer and our economy. We are requesting that HVCC be discontinued permanently, in order to stop the devastation it has caused and will continue to cause on our housing industry and our economy.
Sincerely,
Reappraising Home Appraisers
Posted by Chas W. Leeper, SRA in Help for Buyers, Sellers & Homeowners, Help for Realtors / Brokers, Help for mortgage pros on August 18th, 2009
By JAMES R. HAGERTY , Wall Street Journal
After being blamed for helping to inflate home values during the housing boom, the appraisal business is again coming under fire.
Squeezed by a drop in fees, some appraisers are compensating by driving long distances to handle more assignments. Their wanderings are raising questions about whether they know enough about the neighborhoods to accurately assess the value of homes—which has implications for both home buyers and owners.
Bob Blake, a flight-test engineer who lives in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., was shocked when an appraiser who traveled 44 miles from Port St. Lucie, Fla., valued his home at $228,000 in late May. Mr. Blake’s mortgage broker, Skip McDonough, protested to the appraisal-management company, Nations Valuation Services Inc., that the appraiser had failed to look at comparable homes. Eventually, Nations sent another appraiser, who valued the home at $295,000. The dispute delayed Mr. Blake’s refinancing by more than six weeks.
A spokesman for Nations Valuation declined to discuss the details of the appraisals but said, “We feel we handled it properly.”
Appraisals are supposed to shield home buyers from paying too much and lenders from overestimating the value of collateral. If appraisals come in too high, buyers may overpay, making defaults more likely. If they are too low, it becomes hard to sell or refinance homes. Many real-estate agents and builders say that the pendulum has swung too far toward caution, and that lowball appraisals threaten to snuff out any recovery in the housing market.
In June, Evie Salazar traveled about 75 miles from her office in Corona, Calif., to do an appraisal in Cathedral City, Calif. Usually, Ms. Salazar says, she tries to work within about 40 miles of her home, but business was slow at the time she accepted that job. “You do what you’ve got to do at times to feed the family and pay the bills,” she says.
Ms. Salazar, an appraiser for the past 12 years, says she researched the Cathedral City market carefully and did a good job. But many real estate agents and mortgage brokers charge that some wandering appraisers are coming up with dubious estimates. Too many appraisers are getting assignments in places where they “just don’t know the nuances,” says Rick Turley, who oversees the San Francisco Bay area for the Coldwell Banker real-estate-brokerage chain.
The debate over appraisals is inflamed by a natural tension: Real-estate agents and mortgage brokers, who need to complete transactions to collect their fees, are unhappy when an appraiser nixes the sale price. But it also suggests that there may be unintended consequences to an attempt by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to reform the appraisal business.
Using the threat of litigation, Mr. Cuomo last year prodded the government-backed mortgage investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into adopting a new code of conduct for appraisers. Since those two companies provide funding for the bulk of U.S. home mortgages, the code, which took effect May 1, has become the national standard for most home loans.
The code bars loan officers, mortgage brokers or real-estate agents from any role in selecting appraisers. One result is that more lenders have outsourced the selection to appraisal-management companies, or AMCs, which take a sizable cut of the appraisal fee, often 40% or more. The AMCs pay appraisers as little as $175 to $200 per assignment, compared with the $350 or more that many get when they work directly for a lender.
“Many appraisers are struggling to survive on the fees paid by the AMCs,” says Bill Garber, a spokesman for the Appraisal Institute, a trade group based in Chicago. Appraisers are being asked to work faster even as their fees are cut, and that conflicts with the goal of getting reliable appraisals, he says.
Appraisal-management companies deny they are squeezing appraisers too hard. A spokesman for banking giant Wells Fargo & Co., which owns an AMC, says it “has invested substantial time and resources in the quality control of the valuation process to, among other things, ensure that individual appraisers have relevant knowledge of the markets and properties they review.” A spokeswoman for Mr. Cuomo says the new code is working well and helping protect appraisers from pressure to inflate estimates.
Appraisers are required to follow a set of national rules known as the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice. Among other things, those rules require that “an appraiser preparing an appraisal in an unfamiliar location must spend sufficient time to understand the nuances of the local market.”
Yet some appraisers who travel long distances to find work may be hard-pressed to spend “sufficient time” in an unfamiliar market. LaRon Hall did an appraisal in early June on a home being sold in Palm Desert, Calif., about 86 miles from his office in Rancho Cucamonga, Calif. He says he needs to accept jobs within a broad swath of Southern California to earn a living. Under the new appraisal code, Mr. Hall says, “you’re getting less money and you’re having to do more. … It’s definitely a sticky situation.”
Mr. Hall appraised the three-bedroom home at $186,000, far above the $138,000 for which it sold in late June. Concerned about accuracy, the mortgage lender that financed the purchase rejected Mr. Hall’s appraisal and ordered one from another party before making the loan, according to a person involved in the transaction.
A spokesman for Equifax Inc., whose AMC unit ordered the appraisal in Palm Desert, says Mr. Hall has an excellent record on appraisals and that Equifax has a “rigorous quality-control process.”
Though consumers can’t choose their own appraiser—unless they’re paying cash for a home—they should request a copy of the appraisal and examine it to see whether it contains any errors in the description of the property and whether the nearby homes, or “comps,” used to gauge its value are truly comparable. If they aren’t, the consumer should present any evidence of flaws to the banks and insist that the appraisal be reviewed and redone if necessary.
Carol Kearns, herself a real- estate agent, complains that an appraisal done on her own Montvale, N.J., home in June was “an unprofessional guess.” The appraisal came in at $730,000, which was more than enough to qualify Ms. Kearns and her husband, Robert, to refinance their mortgage. But Ms. Kearns, upset at what she sees as sloppy work, maintains that the home is worth more than $900,000.
The appraiser was Uchenna Eboh, whose employer, Kobi Group, is about 46 miles away in Mendham, N.J. Ms. Kearns says Mr. Eboh didn’t seem to know her neighborhood and used dissimilar houses as “comps.” Among those, she says, were two on much smaller lots and one on a busy street corner.
‘Reasonable Proximity’
A colleague of Mr. Eboh says he couldn’t comment and referred questions about the appraisal to the AMC that ordered it, Lender Processing Services Inc.’s LSI unit. A spokeswoman for LPS says the appraisal “followed the processes required” by federal standards and LSI’s “more-stringent requirements.” She says LSI “only uses local, knowledgeable appraisers located within a reasonable proximity to the properties.”
Sometimes appraisers are called on to express opinions on the values of faraway homes without even seeing them. LandSafe, an appraisal unit of Bank of America Corp., in May assigned Jane Price, an appraiser in Dallas, to review another appraiser’s estimate of a home in Cathedral City, Calif. Ms. Price didn’t visit the neighborhood in question, but her review cited nearby homes she used to determine comparable value.
Ms. Price declined to comment. A spokeswoman for Bank of America says Ms. Price was asked to do only a “desktop review” of the original appraisal. “California is a state which has a lot of market information available, which allows a reviewer to gather credible data about a property even when they are not in the immediate area,” the spokeswoman adds.
Take Advantage of the $8,000 First-Time Buyer Tax Credit
Posted by Chas W. Leeper, SRA in Help for Buyers, Sellers & Homeowners on August 18th, 2009
RISMEDIA, August 18, 2009-Since Congress passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act earlier this year, many have seized the opportunity offered by the $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers. When you factor in today’s historically low interest rates and housing affordability with the financial incentive from the government, it’s easy to see why so many first time buyers have taken advantage of this chance to realize their dream of homeownership.
However, the ability to utilize this $8,000 tax credit will not be available to would-be homeowners much longer. To receive the tax credit, a first-time buyer must purchase and close on a principal residence before Dec. 1, 2009. Since closing on a home generally takes anywhere from 45-60 days, that leaves prospective buyers a little more than a month to take advantage of the this financial opportunity.
“It’s hard to imagine a better time than right now to be a first-time buyer,” said Jim Weichert, president and founder of Weichert, Realtors, one of the nation’s largest independently owned real estate companies. “Mortgage rates and home prices are all favorable, recent economic news is encouraging and the government is providing a large financial incentive. If I was a first-time buyer, I wouldn’t let an opportunity like this slip through my fingers.”
In addition to taking advantage of the tax credit, another reason for first-time buyers to consider making a purchase now are the recent signs of a stabilizing real estate market. Last week, the National Association of Realtors announced that home sales increased in 39 states in the second quarter of the year compared to the first. Last month, the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed an increase in the monthly value of homes for the first time in nearly three years.
Buying a home now might not only be the opportunistic thing to do but also the more practical decision. In many instances, renting can actually be more expensive than buying. By choosing a fixed-rate mortgage, individuals can lock in to a lower payment that will stay the same unlike rent which can increase yearly.
First-time buyers, as well those who haven’t owned a home in more than three years, who purchase a home by Dec. 1, may be eligible to claim all or part of the tax credit based on their income level. Congress will even allow individuals to still claim the credit as part of their 2008 tax return if they file an amended tax return. Individuals can also elect to receive the credit on their 2009 tax return. As with any tax law, individuals should check with a tax advisor to discuss any specifics regarding the use of this provision.